There is a consensus that we will run out of oil. The question is, when? Up until the current energy crisis, we’ve heard outlandish forecasts, projecting that we won’t run out of oil for 500, 700, even 1,000 years…with sustained growth rates of consumption and the introduction of new oil discoveries. If I told you that oil consumption rates grew by 1.76% every year, you would probably shrug it off, assuming that such a small growth rate gives us ample time to develop new energy technologies until we run out of this global-dependent resource.
But do we really understand growth rates? Simply…no. That is the backbone of this presentation (don’t judge the 1994 production quality…it is very interesting information) “Arithmetic, Population & Energy” by Dr. Albert Bartlett stating,”the greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.” Ironically, we have evolved into an exponential-growth culture, through population growth and oil consumption. And what happens as population continues to grow? Oil demand increases.
Even at “low” growth rates, sustainable growth is an oxymoron. The fact is that a modest percentage growth can equate to huge escalations over short periods of time and you will see this throughout the entire presentation, through basic arithmetic. And you can’t argue arithmetic.
This presentation from 15 years ago is surely ahead of its time, as we are finally looking at energy as a crisis. The truth is, we don’t have 1000 years of oil left…we don’t even have 50. We are exponentially growing as a world population and even with “sustained” growth, the world’s dependency on oil is unsustainable.
Tags: Growth, Oil, Sustainability